INSIDE THE MEMA SUPPLIER FORECAST: EARLY SURVEY RESULTS & PROFIT TRENDS
As the commercial vehicle industry prepares for another unpredictable year, MEMA’s recent supplier webinar offers a timely look at what’s top-of-mind for suppliers heading into 2026. Early insights from the MEMA supplier forecast show that the focus is shifting from production volume to profitability and smarter resource planning, especially in the parts, service, and aftermarket segments.
This shift matters not just to OEMs and Tier 1 suppliers, but also to dealers, fleet managers, and parts buyers who will see the ripple effects of changing supplier priorities throughout the year.
Fleet Focus: What MEMA’s Supplier Forecast Means for You
There’s some hope in the commercial vehicle supplier marketplace, early results in recent MEMA supplier surveys show, the company reported in its monthly Pulse webinar.
Over the past three months, suppliers have grown steadily more optimistic, Joe Zaciek, director of research and industry analysis for MEMA says. That said, there’s still a “tremendous amount” of uncertainty surrounding global trade and U.S. regulations on commercial vehicles.
Forecasting for Uncertainty: Suppliers Tread Carefully
MEMA surveyed over 300 suppliers across the commercial vehicle industry. The results reflect what many in the industry are feeling: cautious planning and tighter margins.
According to John Boesel, president and CEO of CALSTART (featured during the MEMA webinar), “The challenge is balancing the need for investment in innovation with market uncertainty.” Many suppliers are avoiding aggressive production targets in favor of protecting profits and managing risk.
Among the early trends revealed:
Lower expectations for production volume growth in 2026
A continued focus on supply chain resiliency and pricing discipline
A shift toward profit pool targeting instead of blanket market share growth
Understanding Profit Pools
The idea of “profit pools” was a key theme of the webinar and supplier forecast. Instead of focusing purely on unit volume (how many parts or products are sold), suppliers are increasingly identifying and investing in the areas of their business that generate the highest margins.
This might include:
Digital tools and diagnostics
Fleet support offerings
Premium or proprietary components
In practice, this means that some suppliers are reducing investment in low-margin SKUs or legacy platforms in order to focus on more profitable product lines, even if those lines don’t sell as frequently.
What This Means for Buyers and Dealers
For businesses that rely on commercial parts and equipment—like Tracey Road customers—these supplier trends can have real-world effects.
Here’s what to watch for:
Some product lines may be phased out if they’re not profitable.
Suppliers may offer fewer deep discounts or promotional programs.
More emphasis will be placed on total cost of ownership (TCO), not just purchase price.
Aftermarket support will become a bigger differentiator, especially for parts with service dependencies.
Tracey Road is already seeing a growing emphasis from OEMs and Tier 1 partners on building value into service packages, diagnostics, and digital support tools—a clear result of this profit-focused strategy.
Data-Driven Decisions Are the New Norm
Another insight from the MEMA supplier forecast is the growing use of benchmarking and scenario planning. With inflation, global instability, and evolving regulations shaping the landscape, suppliers are leaning on data to drive strategic decisions.
They’re using forecasting tools to:
Evaluate pricing strategies
Assess risk in different customer segments
Plan for possible supply chain disruptions
This creates opportunities for savvy buyers and dealers to partner more closely with suppliers—sharing field-level insights that help them tailor support and product offerings in a way that benefits both parties.
The Bigger Picture for 2026
This isn’t just about one company’s strategy—it’s part of a broader industry shift toward smarter, more sustainable growth. For companies like Tracey Road, this means working with suppliers who are invested in long-term partnerships, not just short-term volume.
While production may not spike in 2026, value-driven support, uptime guarantees, and strong aftermarket programs are taking center stage—and that’s good news for fleet operators who want to do more with less.
The MEMA Supplier Forecast Is Clear: It’s About Profit, Not Just Product
If you’re a fleet manager, buyer, or service director, understanding these shifts can help you make better procurement decisions, invest in higher-value parts programs, and build supplier relationships that are aligned with long-term performance—not just initial cost.
Tracey Road Equipment will continue monitoring OEM and supplier forecasts and helping customers stay ahead of changes that impact parts availability, service timelines, and fleet support.